In 2006, Blockbuster CEO John Antioco had a chance to buy Netflix for $50 million. He reportedly laughed at the offer, seeing the young company as a niche player in an industry he dominated. Today, Netflix is worth billions, and Blockbuster is a distant memory.

What causes smart, accomplished leaders to miss what seem like obvious opportunities or threats? More often than not, it’s the same quality that helped them rise to leadership in the first place: confidence.

While confidence is essential for effective leadership, there’s a dangerous tipping point where it transforms into overconfidence—a pervasive blind spot that can derail careers and entire organizations. The most dangerous part? Those suffering from overconfidence are typically the last to recognize it in themselves.

The Confidence Paradox

Humans are naturally drawn to confident leaders. Some studies show we initially prefer decisive, self-assured individuals who project certainty over those who openly acknowledge doubts or limitations. This creates what psychologists call the “confidence paradox”, the very trait that helps people ascend to leadership can become their downfall if left unchecked. However, overconfidence is a destructive pattern and leads to dissatisfaction, resentment, and animosity among other affects, in those that are being led.

Consider the following anecdote. Mark, a young tech CEO, embodied this paradox perfectly. His absolute conviction in his vision helped him secure millions in funding and attract top talent. But when market signals suggested his product strategy needed adjustment, he dismissed the warnings as noise from people who “just didn’t get it.”

“They said the same things about Steve Jobs,” he told his team during a leadership session. Six months later, his company missed its targets by 70%, and investors were calling for his replacement.

Research from the University of California found that overconfident CEOs are significantly more likely to be dismissed than their more measured counterparts. Yet paradoxically, these same traits often got them the job in the first place.

The Four Critical Blind Spots

Overconfidence doesn’t just arrive fully formed—it manifests through specific patterns of thinking and behavior that create dangerous blind spots. Here are the four most common ones observed in executives:

1. The Feedback Filter (Confirmation Bias)

Overconfident leaders often unconsciously filter information to support their existing beliefs, while dismissing conflicting evidence. This tendency isn’t always intentional—our brains are inherently designed to seek confirmation of what we already believe. As a result, leaders may overlook critical feedback, ultimately jeopardizing their decisions and the organization’s success. Recognizing and addressing this bias can be pivotal for achieving balanced and informed leadership.

For example Sarah, a marketing director at a consumer goods company who was absolutely convinced her new packaging design would boost sales. When early focus groups expressed confusion about the new look, she attributed it to “resistance to change” rather than legitimate concerns. Only after a disastrous quarter of declining sales did she acknowledge the feedback had merit.

Warning signs your feedback filter is too strong:

• You find yourself quickly explaining away criticism
• You categorize people as either “getting it” or “not getting it”
• You feel immediately defensive when questions arise about your decisions

2. The Echo Chamber Effect

Nature abhors a vacuum, and when leaders stop accepting diverse input, they inevitably surround themselves with people who reinforce their existing views. This phenomenon can create an unintended environment where innovation is stifled, and blind spots are magnified. Over time, these echo chambers can lead to missed opportunities and critical strategic errors.

Consider the case of Jason, a startup founder who emphasized building a “unified culture.” This approach resulted in hiring individuals who shared his exact vision and methods. When his team was interviewed, it was clear that nearly everyone used the same language to describe company challenges and opportunities—a definite sign of groupthink.

Jason’s stance was, “I don’t need devil’s advocates; I need executors who believe in where we’re going.” Unfortunately, a year later, his company missed a major industry shift that could have been caught earlier had there been more diverse viewpoints.

The echo chamber doesn’t just happen—leaders actively, if unconsciously, create it by:

• Rewarding agreement and punishing dissent
• Selecting team members who think and communicate like they do
• Creating environments where challenging the leader feels risky

3. The Experience Trap

Success can be a dangerous teacher. When leaders attribute past wins primarily to their own brilliance rather than the complex confluence of factors (including luck) that contribute to any success, they fall into the experience trap.
Dave, a veteran sales executive with 20 years of impressive results, joined a tech company and immediately implemented the same playbook that had worked for him in manufacturing. “Sales is sales,” he assured his new team. Despite mounting evidence that tech buyers followed completely different patterns, he doubled down on his approach.

“I’ve been doing this since you were in high school,” he told one young manager who suggested adjustments. Six months later, sales were in free fall, and Dave was struggling to understand why his proven methods weren’t working.

The experience trap is particularly dangerous because:

• Past success creates a false sense of certainty about future outcomes
• It leads to applying old solutions to new problems without sufficient adaptation
• It makes leaders less likely to seek new information or approaches

4. The Expertise Illusion

Many overconfident leaders fall prey to the expertise illusion—the belief that excellence in one area translates to good judgment in unrelated domains. This misconception can lead to misguided decisions, as leaders may overestimate their understanding and abilities outside their core competency. The expertise illusion is reinforced by the aura of authority that leadership positions confer, making it difficult for others to challenge or question their directives.

Carol, a brilliant financial executive, became COO of a software company and immediately began making technical architecture decisions despite having no background in engineering. “Numbers are my thing, and at the end of the day, everything comes down to the numbers,” she explained when questioned.
The engineers, intimidated by her confidence and position, reluctantly implemented her directives. The resulting technical debt took years to unwind after Carol’s departure.

The expertise illusion thrives because:

• Leadership positions confer a general aura of authority
• People rarely challenge leaders operating outside their lane

Retention and Moral are not Immune

Overconfident leaders can have profound negative impacts on their teams. Their inflexible mindset often stifles innovation and creativity, as team members may feel discouraged from presenting new ideas or challenging the status quo. This environment can lead to a lack of collaboration and reduced morale, as individuals may feel undervalued and unsupported. Moreover, the misalignment between the leader’s decisions and the team’s expertise can result in inefficiencies and increased errors, ultimately hindering the organization’s progress. This toxic atmosphere can also lead to high workplace attrition, as employees seek better opportunities where their skills and contributions are valued.

Consider the case of Tom, an acclaimed marketing director who transitioned to a leadership role in product development. Despite his lack of experience in product engineering, Tom insisted on dictating the design and features of a new product. His team, wary of contradicting a senior figure, complied with his directives even though they knew the approach was flawed. The product launch was a costly failure, leading to significant setbacks for the company. Moreover, the constant disregard for the team’s expertise led to increased frustration and demoralization among employees, resulting in several key team members leaving the organization

Recognizing the Warning Signs in Yourself

The importance of self-reflection and self-understanding cannot be overstated, especially in leadership roles. Being aware of one’s own tendencies towards overconfidence is the first step in mitigating its impact. Regularly questioning oneself is crucial in this process. Here are some questions to ask yourself regularly:

• When was the last time I changed my mind about something important based on new information?
• Do people bring me problems early, or do I typically hear about issues after they’ve become serious?
• Can I name three recent instances where I was wrong about something significant?
• How do I typically respond when someone disagrees with me in a meeting?

Physical and emotional cues can also signal that you might be dismissing important feedback. These reactions can hinder productive discussions and stifle innovation. Being mindful of these cues can help you remain open to diverse perspectives and foster a more inclusive environment. Here are some things to watch out for in yourself.

• A quick flash of irritation when challenged
• The urge to interrupt before someone has finished their point
• Mentally categorizing the speaker rather than engaging with their idea
• Feeling personally attacked by professional disagreement

Pay attention to phrases that frequently cross your mind or lips, as they can be indicators of a defensive mindset. They can signal that you are reacting with resistance rather than openness. Recognizing these mental shifts is the first step toward maintaining a balanced and evaluative approach.

• “We’ve tried that before…”
• “That’s not how this industry works…”
• “They just don’t understand the big picture…”
• “I’ve been doing this for X years…”

These examples often suggest that you may be resistant to feedback or external input. It is important to regularly evaluate your ability to listen and adjust as necessary.

Building Confident Humility

The antidote to overconfidence isn’t undermining your own authority or becoming indecisive. It’s developing what psychologist Adam Grant calls “confident humility”—the ability to believe in your capabilities while remaining aware of your limitations.

When Ellen became CEO of a struggling media company, she brought impressive credentials and a clear vision. But unlike many incoming leaders, she began with a listening tour, explicitly telling each department: “I don’t know what I don’t know, and I need your expertise.”

What made Ellen effective wasn’t lack of confidence, she made decisive calls when needed. But she operated from a position of genuine curiosity that kept her learning constantly.

Here are Some Practical ways to Develop Confident Humility:

Create structured dissent processes. At crucial decision points, explicitly assign someone the role of challenging the emerging consensus (the proverbial “Devil’s Advocate”). Rotate this responsibility so it doesn’t fall to the same people.

Practice the pause. When receiving feedback that triggers defensiveness, train yourself to pause before responding. Simply saying, “That’s an interesting point. Let me think about that,” creates space for reflection. This is a basic communication skill that should be developed and nurtured.

Reward truth-telling. Show that addressing problems early is valued. Publicly thank those who highlight tough issues. By doing so, you encourage a proactive approach to problem-solving and foster an environment where concerns are voiced and resolved promptly. This not only improves overall efficiency but also builds trust within your team or community.

Get a feedback buddy. Find a trusted peer who will tell you the truth without fear. Meet regularly and ask specifically: “What am I missing? Where am I being stubborn?” These open dialogues can reveal blind spots and encourage continuous improvement. Over time, this practice can help you become more adaptable and self-aware.

Organizational Safeguards

Individual practices aren’t enough; overconfidence thrives in certain organizational contexts and withers in others. Creating an environment that continuously questions assumptions and encourages diverse viewpoints is essential to mitigate the risks of overconfidence.

Here are a handful of ways to build institutional safeguards:

Implement pre-mortems. Before major decisions or launches, gather the team and ask: “It’s one year from now, and this initiative has failed completely. What happened?” This exercise legitimizes caution and identifies potential blind spots.

Create skip-level feedback channels. Ensure information can reach leaders through multiple paths, not just the hierarchical chain where it’s often filtered or softened.

Institute reverse mentoring. Pair executives with junior employees who can provide ground-level perspectives and exposure to emerging trends.

Measure confidence calibration. When making forecasts or estimates, track both the prediction and the confidence level expressed. Over time, this reveals whether your confidence aligns with actual outcomes.

In this example, Miguel, a manufacturing executive, implemented a fascinating practice: the “I was wrong” start to leadership meetings, where each leader shared a recent incorrect assumption or judgment. Initially, it felt awkward, but it created a culture where problems could be caught much earlier.

The Ongoing Practice

Building awareness of overconfidence isn’t a one-time fix but an ongoing practice. Effective leaders regularly set aside time to reflect on questions like:

• What am I most certain about right now, and how could I be wrong?
• Whose perspectives am I not hearing?
• What would cause me to change my mind about our current direction?

This approach not only fosters intellectual humility but also strengthens decision-making processes by considering alternative perspectives and potential oversights. By transforming moments of reflection into routine practices, leaders can continually evolve and adapt to ever-changing circumstances.

David, a tech executive who survived a near-catastrophic product failure, created a simple but powerful reminder system. On his desk sits a small plaque reading: “What if I’m wrong?” It’s not about paralyzing self-doubt but maintaining the intellectual humility that characterizes truly great leaders.

“The irony,” David said years after his turnaround, “is that I make more decisive calls now than when I was desperately trying to project certainty. The difference is I make them with eyes wide open to what I might be missing.”

The Paradoxical Power of Acknowledging Limits

The ultimate paradox of leadership is that acknowledging your limitations doesn’t diminish your authority—it enhances it. Research consistently shows that leaders who demonstrate awareness of their own fallibility tend to make better decisions and inspire deeper trust.

In a world of increasing complexity and rapid change, overconfidence is becoming more dangerous than ever. The leaders who will thrive won’t be those who project the most certainty, but those who maintain the delicate balance of decisive action and genuine openness to new information.

The next time you feel absolutely certain about something important, pause and ask yourself: What might I be missing? Your future self may thank you for that moment of reflection.

Reflection Questions for Your Team

1. When was the last time our team changed direction based on feedback or new information?
2. How do we typically respond to dissenting views in meetings?
3. What mechanisms exist for surfacing problems or concerns within our organization?
4. How do we balance confidence in our direction with openness to adjustment?

Here is a list of sources I used for this article.

• New UCI Study Explains Why Some “Tarnished” CEOs Get the Boot, While Others Don’t | Paul Merage School of Business | UCI
• The Trouble With Overconfidence, Don Moore (PDF)
• Psychologist Adam Grant Talks Leadership and Humility at IOP Forum | News | The Harvard Crimson
• The Impact of Cognitive Biases on Professionals’ Decision-Making: A Review of Four Occupational Areas – PMC (NIH National Library of Medicine)